Astronomy seminar

Numerical modeling of the Solar Wind and Coronal Mass Ejections for Space Weather Prediction

Nishtha Sachdeva

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are massive blobs of plasma and magnetic fields that erupt from the Sun and can travel towards the Earth and drive near-Earth space weather. CMEs can cause extreme geo-magnetic storms leading to significant disruptions in satellite operations, space-based navigation & communications technologies, power grids and are a concern for astronaut safety. Therefore, it is important to understand the Sun to Earth dynamics of CME propagation to improve space weather forecasting operations and predict the time and strength of CME impact at Earth well in advance. This work discusses a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD)-based approach to numerically model CME evolution in the solar corona and inner heliosphere by reconstructing the 3D background solar wind and launch flux-rope CMEs into it. Ensemble modeling and tools for uncertainty quantification and data assimilation are used to optimize the model and data parameters and improve the accuracy of modeling tools for forecasting operations. The simulation results are compared to an extensive suite of remote sensing observations and in-situ plasma measurements at Earth for validation of the model techniques.

Seminar takes place in Tartu Observatory, Tõravere and is streamed over Zoom.

All 2023/24 seminars.