ESTCube-2 satellite was probably destroyed on board the launcher upon its re-entry to the Earth's atmosphere

On 9 October, ESTCube-2, the satellite developed by Estonian students, finally launched on board the Vega launcher of Arianespace. However, according to current information, the satellite most likely never separated from the launch pod in the nose of the rocket.

In the first hours after the launch, radio amateurs received packets resembling those of the beacon on ESTCube-2. As many CubeSats use the frequencies of radio amateurs for communication, it is possible that the signal of another satellite was mistakenly detected instead of ESTCube-2.

In its official post-launch press release, Arianespace said that the separation of the last two CubeSats was still to be confirmed. As the press release was sent out before the completion of the rocket's mission, this did not cause undue concern for the team. They just had to wait for the satellite to make contact.

However, during ESTCube-2's first scheduled flights across Estonia, the team failed to contact the satellite. This is also not unusual: it was possible that ESTCube-2 had to recharge its batteries after reaching space and then reboot. As the days passed, this scenario and other hypotheses proposed by the team became increasingly unlikely.

A few days after the launch, the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) updated its public catalogue of space objects. According to the latest radar data, only 10 of the 12 new space objects on board Vega were detected in orbit after the launch, providing partial confirmation that something was wrong with two satellites. Based on previous bits of information, the ESTCube team has reason to believe that one of them is ESTCube-2.

"Although the team would obviously be quite disappointed by the loss of the satellite, it would at least give the team some peace of mind and an understanding of why they have not been able to connect to the satellite so far," said Kristo Allaje, ESTCube-2's lead systems engineer, who has been developing the satellite for six years.

According to Project Manager Hans Teras, the team is in close contact with Arianespace to get a better overview of the situation and the further investigation. They need to be patient, as Arianespace is not solely responsible for the various systems of the rocket. Other European companies are also involved, and coordination with them could take several months. "We are also in contact with the Estonian and European space community to find the best way forward for the project in this situation. As the information is relatively fresh and many details are still to be officially confirmed, it is too early to say exactly how the mission will continue," said Teras. The team is discussing a range of options, but first has to wait for official announcements. "The larger goal of ESTCube-2 has certainly not failed: to provide space technology education and hands-on experience to more than half a thousand young engineers and scientists," said Teras.

Read more about ESTCube-2.